SPRING 1938

After months of commitment to maintaining a balanced budget, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt is facing increasing pressure from liberal advisors to request funds from the Treasury as stimulus for New Deal programs, against the advice of Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau Jr. A Gallup poll conducted in March found that 63% of Americans remained opposed to increasing deficit spending even to fight the recession, and with midterms coming up Roosevelt felt that he could not afford to have public confidence in his administration degrade any further. In a March 1938 meeting, Morgenthau convinces Roosevelt to pursue a "Grand Bargain" with business leaders in order to restore business confidence in the national government and have private investments into the economy resume. Among the provisions of this deal are a reduction of the unpopular Undistributed Profits Tax and a scaling back of the Justice Department's antitrust inquiries. Morgenthau argues that doing this instead of raising spending will lead to a "correction" of economic trends, and will avoid the inflation and political accusations that would come from high deficit spending.

Despite this partnership with businesses, heightened investment fails to pay out as deflation accelerates into the spring and unemployment exceeds 20% by May. Morgenthau argues that a correction is coming and the nation cannot rush economic recovery, but desperate for positive results before the midterms, Roosevelt requests $3.75 billion for the Works Progress Administration and announces his decision to the public in a Fireside Chat on May 21st, 1938. Republican leaders immediately denounce the "socialist spending plot" as a pointless attempt to use strategies already tried and failed during the first Depression. While campaigning for a Senate seat in Ohio, Robert Taft suggests that Roosevelt is using the money as a "trust fund" for the campaigns of his preferred candidates in the midterms.

SUMMER 1938

Increasingly frustrated with conservative Democrats blocking New Deal legislation, President Roosevelt begins publicly campaigning for liberal congressional candidates, particularly in Southern states. On tour in South Carolina in June, an angry Roosevelt refers to conditions in the South as "feudal" and denounces the "backwardsness" of incumbent Senator Ellison "Cotton Ed" Smith. Almost immediately, conservative journalists begin condemning Roosevelt for sticking his nose where it doesn't belong.

It has become apparent that Mr. Roosevelt intends to undergo a great purge of Democratic leadership, not unlike the show trials being conducted in Communist Russia. In his vision for an America in which he rules as unquestioned emperor, there is no room for disloyalty, no room for dissent within the party, and so Congress must be packed with his cult of yes-men who allow him to continue his tyrannical reforms with impunity. As we have seen in Germany, and in Italy before it, it takes only one man with the lust for power in his heart to destroy a democracy. Any man who holds his personal freedoms with value should take notice of this.

Editorial, Chicago Daily Tribune, June 22, 1938

Roosevelt scales back his road appearances with congressional candidates in July, choosing only to visit Kentucky to campaign for his Senate ally Alben W. Barkley. He spends the majority of this month focusing on passing the Fair Labor Standard Act and promoting economic recovery. The US unemployment rate reached a peak of 22.5% in August.

BARKLEY DECLARES VICTORY

Senator Barkley declared victory in the Democratic primary race against Happy Chandler for US Senator. Returns from Jefferson County came in late Saturday evening with Barkley leading comfortably in the county, bringing the state totals to 272,803 for Alben Barkley, 249,517 for Happy Chandler. Chandler has not yet commented on the outcome of the election but is expected to deliver a concession speech in the coming days. The mood in Louisville is triumphant, where families gathered to hear Barkley's radio speech from his campaign office in Paducah. "I have done all I can for the people of Kentucky," declared Barkley, "and I will continue to fight for the rights of the farmer, the laborer, the down on his luck, and work to guide our nation on its path out of the misery of darkness and into an age of light." He will contend in the general election against Judge John P. Haswell, the nominee for the Republican Party, in November.

The Courier-Journal, August 7, 1938

This election is unusually contentious compared to previous Senate primaries, fueled by accusations of interference by federal employees of the Works Progress Administration, who spokesmen for Mr. Chandler allege have been distributing funds to the Barkley campaign. WPA administrator Harry Hopkins denies any chance of collusion, but journalists for several national publications have begun investigating the claim. Nonetheless, Roosevelt is energized by Senator Barkley's victory in the primary and decides to resume his in-person campaign trips to the South.

FALL 1938

Tensions in Europe rise in September with German Führer Adolf Hitler threatening war with Czechoslovakia over the Czech-controlled Sudetenland area, made up of mostly German speakers. On September 22nd, 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain traveled to Germany to meet with Hitler and express the United Kingdom's willingness for Germany to annex the Sudetenland. Hitler responds that this is not enough, and demands the full dissolution of Czechoslovakia as a nation. Chamberlain is disturbed by this demand but eventually caves, and on September 30th the Munich Agreement to have Germany occupy the Sudetenland with the possibility of further annexations in the future is signed between Germany, Italy, France, and the United Kingdom.

Member of Parliament Winston Churchill delivers a radio address to the people of the United States on October 16th, declaring that the powers of Europe have failed to properly address the threat of German expansion, and the United States must lead the free nations of Europe in a war against fascism.

We must arm. Britain must arm. America must arm. If, through an earnest desire for peace, we have placed ourselves at a disadvantage, we must make up for it by redoubled exertions, and, if necessary, by fortitude in suffering. We shall, no doubt, arm. Britain, casting away the habits of centuries, will decree national service upon her citizens. The British people will stand erect, and will face whatever may be coming. But arms—instrumentalities, as President Wilson called them—are not sufficient by themselves. We must add to them the power of ideas. People say we ought not to allow ourselves to be drawn into a theoretical antagonism between Nazidom and democracy; but the antagonism is here now. It is this very conflict of spiritual and moral ideas which gives the free countries a great part of their strength.

This address is received well by already interventionist Americans but is derided by isolationists who insist the United States is in no place to worry about European affairs while in the midst of a major recession.

How can Britain call on Americans to do what Brits won't? It seems to me that Mr. Churchill takes us for fools, and is looking to whip us into a hysteria and have us toss our young men into battle an ocean away, only for the British and the French governments to leave us high and dry in our time of need, as they already demonstrated with Czechoslovakia.

Letter from a reader to the Los Angeles Times, October 19, 1938

Roosevelt's "great purge" proves to be a failure as the majority of targets win re-election in their districts. Millard Tydings, his greatest Democratic opponent in the Senate, wins his primary with over 60% of the vote, along with "Cotton Ed" Smith, who carries South Carolina with nearly as much. In New York, Roosevelt's home state, Republican Thomas E. Dewey narrowly defeated Democratic incumbent Herbert Lehman in the election for Governor, ending nearly 20 years of Democratic rule. Even worse for him, the Republican party manages to secure 95 seats in the House and 11 in Senate, breaking the Democrats' supermajority in both chambers. With Republicans holding 40% of congressional seats and Southerners making up half of the remaining Democrats, Roosevelt now has to face a hostile Congress every time he attempts to push any part of his agenda.

A Gallup poll conducted in December 1938 finds Roosevelt's approval rating at 46%, the lowest of his administration. Affecting this rating are opposition to his interference in the midterms, fears of aggressive rhetoric towards Germany, and the fact the nation is still experiencing the effects of the recession of 1937.

WINTER 1939

President Roosevelt delivers his State of the Union address on January 4th, focusing on the progress made towards economic recovery and the rising possibility of war in Europe. Privately, he expresses serious concern to cabinet secretaries that no further New Deal legislation will be passed for the rest of his administration.

KUHN KILLED AT BUND RALLY, THOUSANDS RIOT AT MADISON SQUARE GARDEN

A rally organized by members of the German-American Bund at Madison Square Garden was ended early last night after a crowd member drew a pistol from within his coat and opened fire towards the stage during a speech by Fuehrer of the Bund, Fritz Kuhn. Mr. Kuhn was struck in the neck and died at the scene. Several policemen immediately took action, dispatching the gunman, who was later identified as Philip Sandler, 33 years old, of Brooklyn. Kuhn had led the Bund movement since 1935. Outside the Garden, news of the shooting sparked a riot within the crowd of nearly 100,000 that had amassed in protest of the Nazi rally. The force of nearly 1,700 policemen on duty guarding the event acted to break up the riot, holding off the throngs of agitators who attempted to rush the arena as panicked attendees poured out. In total, 98 persons received treatment for injuries, including 33 policemen, and 596 arrests were made, mostly for disorderly conduct. The area remains closed by city police.

Detectives believe that Mr. Sandler had been influenced in his attack by political beliefs, exacerbated by the fact that Sandler, a leatherworker, had been out of work for eight months prior to the incident. In a written address, Mayor LaGuardia described the incident as a "dark day in the history of New York City", and implored the public not to "tarnish the democratic ideal of free speech with the language of the reactionary". Acting Fuehrer of the German-American Bund Gerhard Kunze declared this morning that Kuhn was a "martyr killed by the menace of hate" and pledged to continue his work of uniting the "free White Gentiles of Germany and of America in common cause against the Jewish-Bolshevist God-haters of the world, however Satanically violent they become".

The New York Times, February 21, 1939

Public reaction to the assassination of Fritz Kuhn is mixed, with some outspoken leftists celebrating it, but many isolationists consider it a dangerous provocation, creating an incident in which the Nazi-supporting Bund look like the peaceful side against a murderous anti-German agitator.

On March 15th, Germany annexes the remaining territory of Czechoslovakia. Roosevelt confides to his Secretary of the Interior Harold Ickes that he believes war in Europe is an unavoidable fact, and he has no faith in Britain or France to fight the war. Five days later, Germany sends an ultimatum to Lithuania demanding the territory of Memel. The British and French governments are silent on the matter, and Lithuania is forced to cede the territory on March 23rd.

I spoke to Lord Lothian recently, and his attitude was completely fatalist, like he had already made up his mind that Britain was going to go to war and lose, and he asked me, essentially, to do his country's job for him and fight the war, because he was so sure that his country couldn't. It honestly made me nauseous.

President Roosevelt in a private conversation with Harold Ickes, March 21, 1939

SPRING 1939

On March 31st, Prime Minister Chamberlain finally takes a more hardline stance on German expansion, issuing a guarantee of independence to Poland. Remaining pro-appeasement politicians are humiliated by Hungarian and Italian invasions during April of Slovakia and Albania respectively.

The cash-and-carry provisions of the Neutrality Act of 1937 end in May 1939. Roosevelt lobbies Congress to renew them, but the effort never gets off the ground. Congressional isolationists remain unswayed while Germany, Italy, and Japan continue their aggressive expansion. Roosevelt feels that an all-out war is imminent, after which he will be more able to commit to interventionist acts with less opposition- due to this belief, he rejects Secretary of State Cordell Hull's request to terminate the US-Japanese Commercial Treaty in July.

SUMMER 1939

German generals finalize plans for an invasion of Poland by early August. The French government under President Édouard Daladier seeks to secure a military defense alliance with the Soviet Union, but a lack of public support in the United Kingdom causes the British government to withdraw from talks.

Intelligence from Moscow report that officials of the German government including Foreign Minister Herr von Ribbentrop and the Ambassador von der Schulenburg were recently seen near the Kremlin. We do not know the purpose of their presence there but believe that it is likely Hitler is attempting to create an understanding between Stalin and himself with regard to their non-aggression in any future invasion of Poland. No doubt the Germans see an opportunity for an easy deal after France's delegation to Moscow left emptyhanded. Be on alert for any announcements pertaining to Soviet foreign policy.

MI6 memo to employees of the Foreign Office, August 22, 1939

On August 23rd, the pact is signed. Eastern Europe is divided into control zones of Germany and the Soviet Union, which each are allowed to pursue any territorial goals in without the worry of intervention by the other.

On August 31st, German troops conduct false flag operations along the border of Poland, using corpses of deceased prisoners from the Dachau concentration camp to appear to be German soldiers killed by Polish partisans. The next day, Germany launches an invasion of Poland. France and the United Kingdom, along with its dominions, declare war on Germany on September 3rd. The Soviets begin their invasion two weeks later.

In a Fireside Chat, President Roosevelt vows to make every effort to keep the United States out of war. By the end of the month, Germany and the Soviets have partitioned Poland. Roosevelt once again begins working to have Congress renew cash-and-carry provisions, but isolationist Congressmen point out that the British and French armies have not conducted any operations since declaring war.

FALL 1939

The war continues into October and November without any significant action taken by the Allied nations. This changes on November 30th when the Soviet Red Army begins its invasion of Poland. Conscious of the low chance of American intervention in the war, the British and French expeditionary forces draft an order to land at Narvik, Norway and deploy in Finland. General John Vereker, Lord Gort telephones the Swedish government asking for access to travel through the country, but Sweden refuses. Some generals urge proactive action, believing the longer they wait to strike, the stronger the German-Soviet alliance will become. On December 9th two "plans of aggressive action" arrive on Chamberlain's desk. The first orders a British-French occupation of northern Norway and Sweden, cutting off German iron shipments and allowing an open land route to Finland, and the second orders planes in French Syria to carry out tactical bombings on Soviet oil fields in Azerbaijan. Chamberlain has the option to commence either one of these at any point he decides. At the urging of his generals, he approves the Scandinavia plan on December 12th.

Norway and Sweden are powerless to conduct any real military action against the Allied armies, so the expeditionary forces march easily to the Finnish-Russian border, where Lord Gort declares that any crossing of the Mannerheim Line will be considered an act of war. Stalin shrugs this off, having seen the extent of the "war" the Allies had already been fighting against Germany, and continues operations on the Mannerheim line. On December 26th, the United Kingdom formally declares war on the Soviet Union, followed a day later by France.

Germany's iron supply is greatly reduced by the Allied occupation in Sweden, causing Hitler to immediately send troops to Scandinavia with the goals of occupying Swedish oil fields and key Norwegian ports. After German troops land at Trondheim, Norwegian politician Vidkun Quisling delivers a speech welcoming the Germans as liberators against foreign occupation. Officially, the militaries of Norway and Sweden, who had been putting up only a minor fight against occupying forces, do not work with either side but refrain from large-scale operations to avoid being annihilated. As images of Allied skirmishes with the militaries of previously neutral nations arrive in the American press, the public opinion of supporting them takes a significant hit- isolationists denounce the act as self-serving warmongering. Even President Roosevelt is personally angered by the actions of the British army, but does not comment publicly to not hurt the pro-intervention effort.

On November 18th, Congress narrowly approves the Neutrality Act of 1939, lifting the arms embargo on warring nations as long as they pay in cash and transport shipments with their own fleet, preventing American ships from becoming military targets. With the Roosevelt administration distracted by the ongoing war in Europe, no action is taken on the Japanese trade agreement for the remainder of the year.

WINTER 1940

Over time, the Allied armies, not being suited to war in deep snow, begin losing ground on all fronts in Scandinavia. A combined land and amphibious offensive captures Narvik early in the month and moves in on the Swedish iron mines of Norrbotten county. The Finnish front becomes deadlocked from late January.

In January 1940, Roosevelt begins seriously entertaining the idea of a third term as President. His cabinet advises him not to commit to a decision to run in the 1940 election, as public polling suggests that just over 40% of Americans would support his campaign. Voters are skeptical of the need for a third Roosevelt term due to low public support for intervention, and due to lackluster gains in the economy- unemployment remains at 18%.

For months since the breakout of the so-called "war" the President has been very tricky! Where he was once so talkative with his fireside broadcasts and his boasting announcements he has been conveniently silent as long as the topic of his contention for a third term has been on our minds. One might wonder if he has taken a page out of the book of the European demagogues he loves so much to chatter about- it would certainly not be out of character for the pomposity that has become so common in this administration. Of course, General Washington warned us about the dangers of lifetime appointments, about how the man who lusts for power is sure to abuse it, and in fact even Washington chose to step down during a time of war between the empires of Europe on our own nation's doorstep. Perhaps Herr Roosevelt sees himself as a man greater than George Washington, in which case, it may be time for us as free citizens of America to do what we must to maintain our liberties in the way our Founding Fathers would surely urge.

Anonymous editorial to New York Journal-American, March 2, 1940

By mid-March the Allied occupation of Norway and Sweden has been defeated. Hitler installs supportive politicians in the governments of both countries and sends most armies back to Germany to recuperate. Soon after, Hitler decides to test the new military tactics his generals had been working on in Denmark. The first paratrooper invasion in history begins with landings on the south side of Zeeland island, combined with naval and infantry assaults. Copenhagen is overrun, leading the Danish government to capitulate within a day. Their military is disarmed, but the government is allowed to remain in power as long as they submit to a German occupation. Denmark is declared a German protectorate.

Economic cooperation between the Germans and Soviets increases during this time, but no military alliance is made- the Soviets make peace with Finland by themselves, taking the Karelia and Salla regions. Chamberlain refuses to move forward with bombing Azerbaijan.

SPRING 1940

After the end of the Scandinavia front, the frontlines in Europe return to quiet well into the spring as involved nations build up their armaments. On May 28th, the Wehrmacht launches a combined ground and sea invasion of the neutral countries of Denmark and Norway. Denmark surrenders nearly immediately, but the Norwegian army, assisted by the British Royal Navy, holds off invading forces during their initial offensive.

Democratic primaries held in March and April are easily carried by Roosevelt, despite the fact that he has still not publicly announced his entry into the race for nomination. Infuriated by what he sees as Roosevelt's extraordinary display of both authoritarianism and cowardice, Democratic Party chairman James Farley announces his entry into the race. He wins the Massachusetts primary nearly unanimously but is unable to gather enough support to defeat Roosevelt's nearly impenetrable New Deal coalition, and the race is essentially over by the time the California primary finishes in May. Roosevelt maintains silence over his intention to seek the nomination.

Meanwhile, Republicans consolidate support around the young Governor of New York Thomas Dewey. In April, Dewey defeats Old Guard favorite Arthur Vandenberg in crucial Midwestern primaries, and his other major opoonent, Senator Taft, withdraws from future primaries in the Northeast. Seen as a more moderate candidate than the hardline conservatives Vandenberg and Taft, Dewey appears to have a serious chance to unseat Roosevelt in November.

Within the American isolationist movement, a unified political voice emerges on the campus of Yale University, led by a committee of Yale Law School students including Sargent Shriver, a member of a prominent Maryland political family, head Yale football coach Gerald Ford, and Quaker Oats heir R. Douglas Stuart. The America First Committee, as it comes to be called, gains an audience with congressional members of both parties, and becomes a dominant force in lobbying across the country during the summer of 1940.

In this present moment, there are those who agitate us to take up arms, to run screaming into battle. Some even tell us we should be subject to a national draft. 25 years ago, we were told this same thing, and we were convinced. A hundred thousand of our men went off to die in Europe in a war they said would "end all wars". Here we stand now, in the midst of another war. Most every American today has come to understand that it was all a waste. Knowing all this, why do they insist so strongly that we abandon our defensive position on the American continent and sacrifice our lives for another war that is in no way our concern?

The answer, though it may seem cynical, is the unfortunate truth: all this agitation is for no greater cause than to enrich the arms dealers, the bankers, and the war chest of the Roosevelt administration. It is no secret that every time two countries go to war, the international lenders and the arms traders profit greatly. These merchants of death have much to gain from war: each battle affords them another winter trip to the tropics or luxury cruise. They care little for the lives of the men who fight to line their pockets. In addition, the Roosevelt administration profits from the emergency provisions it freely declares during the war. Already, they have used these emergency provisions to run up a terrific debt, restrict the power of Congress, and allow the President to assume a role not unlike the tyrant emperors of Rome. Of course one can see why it would be in the interests of the Roosevelt administration to more closely involve the United States in the war. Because of the influence of these agitating groups, we are facing the serious threat of becoming direct participants in a second war in Europe, a war that the honest men and women of America have no interest in fighting. Therefore, let us show the groups that incite us: that no amount of money, that no amount of propaganda, that no amount of lying, and deception, and agitation, can force us into battle against our will. Let us organize and make it known, we, the people of America, will not fight a banker's war!

Excerpt from America First Committee speech in Philadelphia, June 29, 1940

A vote of no confidence in the government of Neville Chamberlain fails in mid-May, but with massive opposition in both the Labour Party and large groups of the Conservative Party, Chamberlain ultimately resigns on the morning of May 28th. Supporters of Winston Churchill and Edward Wood, Lord Halifax debate in the House of Commons for a few hours, but a majority eventually agree that Halifax lacks the war experience and the support with Labour to become Prime Minister. Churchill takes office at sundown.

On May 28th, Hitler gives his generals the order to commence with operation Fall Gelb: the invasion of the Low Countries. Neither Britain or France are very surprised by this, having recovered a dossier mentioning an upcoming attack on the Low Countries from an officer's crashed plane weeks before. Details of the invasion plan were not included, so Allied armies are caught off guard a week later when a diversionary attack leads them into a trap far into Belgium while a second army cuts them off by advancing through northern France to Calais. With 400,000 British and French encircled on the Belgian coast, General Heinz Guderian insists that an immediate land assault is necessary to prevent the divisions from regrouping or being extracted by the Royal Navy. Luftwaffe commander Hermann Göring, however, argues that the Panzer divisions in Belgium are underdefended and should halt for 48 hours to allow infantry reinforcements to reach the frontline. Though Hitler initially shares Guderian's concerns, Göring assures him that the Luftwaffe is sufficient to wipe out the Allied armies before an extraction fleet can arrive- Hitler ultimately listens to Göring, and a 48 hour ground halt order is issued. The Luftwaffe fails to significantly reduce Allied numbers, allowing them to build defenses along the beaches, which are used to hold off the German army until a British fleet arrives on June 12th. Most encircled troops are successfully rescued over the next week, and Germany fully occupies Belgium and the Netherlands. Though Guderian is annoyed by the other generals' failure to act against the encircled divisions, German leadership still consider Fall Gelb to be a great victory.

Privately, staffers of the still-undeclared Roosevelt campaign celebrate this news and watch their polling numbers go up. Roosevelt is vehement that he does not want to be the one to announce his campaign so that he appears like a reluctant candidate rather than one enthusiastic to chase a third term.

SUMMER 1940

After the fall of Belgium, the Wehrmacht moves against France. Morale is high in the French army, allowing units to hold off German advance for about a week, but it quickly declines after they sustain several major defeats at the Somme River and the city of Amiens. On the morning of June 26th, the government of Italy formally joins the war on the side of the Germans- later that day, French units guarding Paris surrender and German armies move in to capture the city without firing a shot. Days later, the Maginot line breaks down, causing the total collapse of French defenses. On July 7th, the French government surrenders. Prime Minister Philippe Pétain retains control of France's colonies, but Germany occupies all of mainland France.

The effect this revelation has on the American election is profound. In The Republican National Convention, ongoing during the initial invasion of France, three of the major candidates are isolationist. Only Wendell Willkie, previously believed to have a low chance at nomination, had advocated for involvement in the European war, and he gains momentum rapidly. Nonetheless, the strongest force in the party remains the lobbying of the America First Committee, backed by big names such as Democratic senators David Walsh and Burton Wheeler, news broadcaster Charles Coughlin, wealthy public figures such as Robert E. Wood and Frank Lloyd Wright, and nearly every Republican politician in the country. Balloting is contentious, but a series of speeches by comical numbers of AFC backers ranging from legitimate criticism of the Allied invasions of Norway and Sweden to long rants about monarchist-communist plots eventually tips the scale back in the favor of isolationism. Dewey is nominated on the 4th ballot after flipping Vandenberg's delegates. Aware of criticism regarding his young age and lack of experience, he nominates 66-year-old Oregon senator Charles McNary as his runningmate. Dewey and McNary are officially nominated on June 28th.

Now leading in the polls for the first time, Roosevelt decides to use the opportunity to push forward legislation that had been previously sidelined. During the summer months, the administration quickly passes the Smith Act and a national draft act through Congress. The America First Committee starts working overtime to rejuvenate the isolationist movement. The Soviets invade Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania on July 9th, with the British too distracted defending the home front to intervene. Senator Gerald Nye of North Dakota, a prominent isolationist, declares the invasion as proof that European affairs are defined by "imperial schemes" that the United States would do best to keep out of. Hitler soon sends a peace offering to the British guaranteeing the restoration of independent France, with some territorial concessions, but Churchill refuses. The Luftwaffe begins its bombardment of Britain on July 21st.

The scene at Chicago Stadium yesterday was of utter excitement and excitement as delegates from each of the forty-eight states shouted over each other to nominate the Democratic Party's candidate for President of the United States. Moments earlier, Senator Barkley had read an announcement from Washington stating that the President had no intention of seeking a nomination to continue in the office of President. This announcement came to the great dismay of many of the convention's attendees, who stood dumbfounded for a brief time. Then came a voice over the public address system: "GIVE US ROOSEVELT!" The stadium went into a frenzy as the thumping voice continued: "GIVE US ROOSEVELT! NEW JERSEY FOR ROOSEVELT! MICHIGAN FOR ROOSEVELT! OHIO FOR ROOSEVELT!"

Soon, the crowd had joined in on the chant from the speakers. State by state, delegates rushed out towards the podium, fighting to be the first to give their support to President Roosevelt...

Excerpt from The Washington Post, July 16, 1940

The loudspeaker broadcast at the DNC creates a magical-feeling moment for Roosevelt supporters, but to most it is obvious that this was a carefully engineered plot to make the delegates nominate Roosevelt without him having to declare his intention to run. The voice on the loudspeaker is eventually discovered to have been Thomas Garry, the superintendent of the Chicago sewage department, who did the loudspeaker job as a favor to his boss, Mayor Ed Kelly. Despite the initial hysteria caused by the broadcast, the atmosphere dies down somewhat by the time ballots are cast. Roosevelt is nominated on the first ballot, but not in the landslide initially expected after delegates from the South and a few from other states cast protest votes for James Farley, John Nance Garner, and Millard Tydings along with a few other local candidates. For the Vice Presidential ballot, Roosevelt's campaign is aware of the complications that will come from his low popularity among southern Democrats, and puts forward liberal South Carolina senator James F. Byrnes. Byrnes is nominated on the first ballot.

We have encountered more difficulties than expected achieving air superiority in Great Britain. Kampfgeschwader units 2 and 3 have sustained heavy casualties near the Eastchurch air base, and KG 54 and 55 over London. RAF is enthusiastically engaging our pilots, morale draining operation is needed. Recommend to begin targeting civilian locations and infrastructure.

Communication from Generalfeldmarschall Albert Kesselring to Hermann Göring, August 2, 1940 (translated to English)

On August 8th, attacks on civilian targets in the city of Birmingham begin. The RAF responds by bombing Berlin, which results in more damage than the Luftwaffe was able to inflict on Birmingham. Churchill believes an attempt at naval invasion from Germany is imminent, and 2 million civilian members of the Home Guard are mobilized. The RAF maintains air superiority, even after direct bombings begin in London, and German invasion plans are ended by mid-September.

Roosevelt plans to uses executive orders to increase cooperation with Britain, including by providing them with destroyers, but is deterred by the closeness of the upcoming election. After Japan invades Vichy French-controlled Indochina in September, he begins the six-month process to terminate the 1911 free trade agreement with Japan.

FALL 1940

In October, the Tripartite pact between Germany, Italy, and Japan is signed in Berlin. Hungary joins shortly after, and declares war on the United Kingdom. After Romania applies to join in early November, ruining Soviet plans to annex Bessarabia (which had been promised to them under the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact), the Soviet Union becomes increasingly suspicious of the Tripartite alliance, which now includes every European nation bordering the Soviets. Vyacheslav Molotov goes to Berlin to discuss Soviet entry into the alliance, but is unable to reach an agreement with Hitler over which nation would include Romania and Bulgaria in their sphere of influence. Both Hitler and Molotov leave unhappy, and Hitler, angered by the suggestion that the Soviets have a right to influence in Romania and Bulgaria, instructs his foreign staff not to respond to any further communications on the matter from Molotov. Generals Friedrich Paulus and Erich Marks begin drafting plans for an invasion of Russia before the assault on Britain is finished.

The German Wehrmacht must be prepared to crush Soviet Russia in a quick campaign (Operation Barbarossa) even before the conclusion of the war against England. For this purpose the Army will have to employ all available units, with the reservation that the occupied territories must be secured against surprises. For the Air Force it will be a matter of releasing such strong forces for the eastern campaign in support of the Army that a quick completion of the ground operations can be counted on and that damage to eastern German territory by enemy air attacks will be as slight as possible. This concentration of the main effort inn the East is limited by the requirement that the entire combat and armament area dominated by us must remain adequately protected against enemy air attacks and that the offensive operations against England, particularly against her supply lines, must not be permitted to break down. The main effort of the Navy will remain unequivocally directed against England even during an eastern campaign. I shall order the concentration against Soviet Russia possibly 8 weeks before the intended beginning of operations. Preparations requiring more time to get under way are to be started now - if this has not yet been done - and are to be completed by 15 May 1941.

Führer Directive 21, Adolf Hitler, December 18, 1940

The British see their first successful offensive operations in October and November after successful naval assaults on the Italian battleship fleet and former French ports in Africa. Ground troops sent to defend Greece against Italian invasion in October are able to drive back the frontline into Albania.

The United States presidential election is held on November 5th. Roosevelt defeats Dewey by a margin of 334 to 197 electoral votes, much closer than previous elections, and Dewey wins major northern states like Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, and New York. The Democrats also lose more seats in Congress, particularly in areas with high populations of Germans, Russians, Norwegians, and Swedes, down to a majority of less than 60%.

Though he wins the election, Roosevelt continues to face major pushback from the American public and from Congress on his plans to increase involvement in the war. The first attempt at a vote on lend lease in December is struck down in the House.

WINTER 1941

The British offensive from Egypt into Libya sees major successes in early 1941